Analyzing the Impact of Week 13 Losses on NFL Coaches’ Futures

What Week 13 losses mean for NFL head coaches on the hot seat

Jerod Mayo and the Patriots are 3-10 in the first season since Bill Belichick left the organization, with a tough remaining schedule ahead. Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images

It was a bad week to be an embattled NFL coach. Week 13 started with Matt Eberflus’ final stand, as the Bears coach seemed to lose track of time and mismanaged another late-game situation in a 23-20 loss to the Lions. Chicago’s sixth straight defeat marked the end of Eberflus’ time in charge of the Bears, as he was fired by the organization Friday.

By Sunday evening, just about every other coach sitting on a hot seat had followed with a loss of their own. In addition to Monday night’s Broncos-Browns games, nine other games featured matchups between teams with winning records and teams with losing records. In all nine, the team that entered the game with the winning record took the W.

Not all of those losing teams have coaches with fears for their job security, but many are facing some semblance of an uncertain future. There are still five weeks of football left, and what happens over that span might influence decisions. The Bears, for example, saved Eberflus’ job for a season in 2023 by going 4-2 down the stretch after a 3-8 start.

Let’s evaluate some of the league’s struggling teams, what’s going wrong, how that impacted them in Week 13 and what they have to do from here on out to ensure their coach’s return in 2025. I’ll start with one of the matchups from Thanksgiving, when the Giants helped produce a happy holiday for the one embattled coach who actually won in Week 13, Dallas’ Mike McCarthy. Are we about to see the latest example of the Coach of the Year curse?

Jump to a coach on the hot seat:

Brian Callahan | Brian Daboll

Jerod Mayo | Doug Pederson

Antonio Pierce | Zach Taylor | Jeff Ulbrich

Brian Daboll, New York Giants (2-10)

Week 13 result: Lost 27-20 to the Cowboys

It’s actually remarkable just how much has changed in about two years for Daboll in New York. The 2022 Giants started 7-2, and while they were mostly average down the stretch, Daniel Jones led the NFL in Total QBR over the final month of the season. The offense scored 38 points in a rout of a hapless Colts team to clinch a playoff spot in late December. Having coaxed resurgent years out of Jones and running back Saquon Barkley with replacement-level receivers, the combination of Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen was understandably being portrayed as the duo that brought the Giants back to relevance.

You know what has happened since. Jones struggled in 2023 before getting injured, didn’t look much better after his return in 2024 and was unsurprisingly benched to avoid his $23 million injury guarantee triggering for 2025 before being released. As documented on “Hard Knocks,” the Giants declined to offer Barkley a significant long-term deal in either the 2023 or 2024 offseasons, allowing him to leave for the Eagles in free agency, where he’s in the thick of the MVP race. That has overshadowed the impact of losing safety Xavier McKinney, who was also allowed to leave in free agency without a franchise tag and join the Packers, where he’s tied for the league lead with seven interceptions. The Giants might end up having lost the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year in the NFL in free agency this offseason.

At this point, none of that matters. Firing Daboll and Schoen as a punitive measure for the mistakes made in 2023 and 2024 doesn’t really do New York any favors, especially given that this ownership group’s previous hires at head coach consisted of Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge. The personnel decisions would seemingly fall more on the general manager than the coach, anyway. With a blank slate at quarterback after the season, the Giants have to ask themselves whether Daboll is the best pick to help coach up that quarterback in 2025 and beyond.

Is he? I’d argue that the Daboll who was being fawned over as a head-coaching candidate in 2020 and 2021 and for his work with Jones in 2022 — when he won NFL Coach of the Year — shouldn’t be much different as a playcaller or offensive architect than he is now. Those offenses played into Jones’ (and Josh Allen’s) abilities as a runner and scrambler. Those concepts aren’t outdated and are still in the playbook this season. Jones struggled when he held onto the football, taking too many sacks and fumbling too often, and Daboll’s offense was designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly with RPOs and quick game. That all made and makes sense.

Behind an inconsistent offensive line, Barkley needed the threat of Jones as a runner and to make magic happen himself to succeed. The one positive for the Giants on offense this season might actually be at running back, where Tyrone Tracy has quietly thrived in Barkley’s absence. While he’s not putting up MVP-caliber numbers, the rookie fifth-round pick has averaged an even 5.0 yards per carry and posted a 48.8% success rate on the ground, all while making a fraction of Barkley’s salary. Giants fans would understandably prefer to have Barkley around — and Tracy has given away some of that impact by fumbling four times — but the offense has still been able to piece together a pretty reasonable ground game.

I’d argue the playcalling and scheme hasn’t always been a disaster, even if there obviously hasn’t been much production. In Jones’ last start, the loss in Germany against the Panthers, there were plays to be made. Jones just didn’t make them. Take the third-and-1 flea-flicker, where he took a sack in the scenario where that was the one thing he couldn’t do. This should be a big play; instead, with two receivers open for chunk plays, it turns into a drive-ending fiasco:

Rookie wideout Malik Nabers was frustrated when he went the entire first half without getting a target in the 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 12, so it was no surprise that quarterback Drew Lock went to Nabers early and often during Thursday’s loss to the Cowboys. Rewatching those plays, it’s clear to see an offense that uses alignments, motions and stacks to create space and opportunities for Nabers, applying many of the same ideas Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell uses to do the same for Justin Jefferson, which stands out as the gold standard for a coach getting the most out of his star wide receiver.

The problem is the Giants don’t get as much of those targets as the Vikings, owing to some combination of subpar quarterback play, inconsistent timing and the occasional drop from Nabers. The offense hasn’t been good enough around Nabers, but again, I’m not sure Daboll has gone from understanding how to get the most out of Stefon Diggs in Buffalo to struggling with doing the same for Nabers, at least in terms of the scheme.

On the other hand, it’s also fair to make a case that the offense was probably a little lucky to be as successful as it was in Years 1 and 2 of the Daboll era. The Giants turned the ball over on just 7.9% of their drives over that stretch, the lowest rate for any team. Some of that was a product of the offense being relatively unambitious with Jones at the helm and relying on hitting single after single, but it was also what kept the offense afloat. Strip out the drives that ended in turnovers for every team between 2022 and 2023 and New York ranked 29th in points per possession (1.70), ahead of only the Panthers, Patriots and Jets.

This season, the Giants have turned the ball over on more than 12% of their drives, the ninth-worst rate in the league. They’ve yet to win the turnover battle in a single game, which has been a disaster for a team that survived by forcing a league-high 31 takeaways a year ago. Turnover rates are noisier from year-to-year on offense than most people believe, so if Daboll’s biggest contribution was temporarily protecting the football, I’m not sure that’s sustainable or justifies keeping him around.

The other big question revolves around Daboll’s strongest argument to get another year: He has never gotten to pick his guy. Daboll and Schoen inherited Jones from the Dave Gettleman regime. They declined Jones’ fifth-year option, which seemed to point toward picking a new quarterback in 2023, but after he produced a career season, they signed him to a four-year, $160 million extension. There might not have been a way to avoid that after Jones led the Giants to their first playoff win since the Eli Manning era, and with decisions like that one, there’s the distinct possibility the ownership might have been strongly involved in deciding it wanted to pay the quarterback it had been faithfully waiting to see break out for years. Most offensive-minded head coaches get at least one chance to pick a quarterback they believe in, either through the draft or by adding a veteran with a meaningful pedigree.

And yet, at the same time, it seems impossible to not assign Daboll and Schoen some of the blame for deciding to build around Jones. When the Giants wanted to bring in competition for Jones this offseason, they signed Lock to a one-year, $5 million deal. After Lock struggled badly in the preseason, though, Daboll chose to bypass him and head straight to third-stringer Tommy DeVito, only inserting him after DeVito got injured during his start against the Bucs. If this leadership group couldn’t sign a backup quarterback it actually wanted to play, should it really be trusted to pick the guy to build around in 2025 and beyond?

What needs to happen next: The Giants must show some sort of pulse down the stretch, something that will be harder after losing superstar defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence indefinitely after the All-Pro candidate suffered an elbow injury in the Cowboys loss. Ownership has proved to be sensitive to fan criticism in the past, with the botched benching of Manning for Geno Smith in 2017 leading to the firing of McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese. With home games against the Saints and Colts to come, Daboll will need to give the Giants a reason to believe they can turn things around if he wants to be involved in picking the next quarterback in 2025.

Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)

Week 13 result: Lost 19-17 to the Chiefs

One of the NFL’s other two-win teams came much closer to getting a critical victory this week, as the Raiders nearly repeated their feat of beating the Chiefs in Kansas City. That win in 2023, coupled with a 63-21 shellacking of the Chargers the prior week, was enough to land Pierce the full-time job in Las Vegas. As a former player whose head-coaching experience before this consisted of four years at the high school level, there weren’t many doubts about his ability to connect to players. His ability to manage games and make critical decisions was going to be questioned, however.

Those concerns have been warranted, although not in the situation in which Pierce has taken some criticism after Friday’s loss. The Raiders were right to avoid repeating one of Eberflus’ mistakes and try to advance the ball forward with 15 seconds to go on third-and-3, given that they were still only in position to attempt a 50-yard field goal with Daniel Carlson. While that’s technically in his range, they had time to pick up a few yards and spike the football, yards that could have been valuable. Carlson had also missed three 55-plus yard field goals earlier in the game. What happened with quarterback Aidan O’Connell losing a fumble on a snap was a disaster, but I support Pierce & Co. trying to create an easier field goal in that situation.

Then, after the game, I read that Pierce merely wanted to throw the ball out of bounds to burn time off the clock before attempting the field goal. While understanding that the Chiefs have made magical things happen in late-game scenarios in the past, the Raiders did need to chase a few more yards and trust that they could spike the ball after getting a first down.

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He also made a bigger mistake on the prior drive, one which impacted the end-of-game scenario for the Raiders. Trailing by two points with 2:24 to go, Pierce didn’t seem to have a strong handle on what to do. After two incompletions produced a fourth-and-11 for Las Vegas on Kansas City’s 40-yard line, he initially sent out the punting unit with a two-point deficit, then called a timeout with a stopped clock to send Carlson and the field goal unit out instead. That turned out to be a critical timeout, as it forced the Raiders to attempt their two-minute drill without any ability to stop the clock. Heading into third down with a pass play called, Pierce needs to know his team is going to do if it fails to pick up any yardage. Whether that’s just knowing from experience or trusting someone on staff to make the call is the head coach’s choice, but he can’t burn a timeout because of indecisiveness late in a close game.

This wasn’t the first time in 2024 that Pierce has seemed overmatched. After Week 1, I wrote about Pierce costing his team somewhere between 6 to 9 percentage points of win expectancy by punting on a fourth-and-1 trailing by six points with 7:43 to go, a decision in which virtually every other team has learned to go for a conversion over the past five years. All coaches are going to make decisions that disagree with win probability models at one point or another, but these are huge unforced errors the Raiders simply aren’t good enough to overcome.

We have to be realistic and sympathetic toward the situation in Las Vegas. I’ve repeatedly underlined the disastrous state of this roster after years of poor draft picks and foolish decisions by former coaches Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels. The Raiders (understandably) traded away wideout Davante Adams for a Day 2 pick and have been without defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, their top free agent addition, for most of the season after he fractured his foot in early October. They entered the season with a quarterback competition between O’Connell and Gardner Minshew that didn’t look good on paper and hasn’t played out well in reality. This team wasn’t going to be good in 2024, with or without Pierce.

At the same time, though, what’s the best case Pierce can make for justifying his status moving forward? While the Raiders did upset the Ravens, their other win came against the Browns and Deshaun Watson. Pierce was understandably given some credit for a defense that played well after McDaniels’ firing last year, but the Raiders rank 27th in points allowed per possession and 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per play this season. Pierce’s big hire this offseason, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, was fired last month. The defensive playcaller is Patrick Graham. If Pierce is a CEO coach who doesn’t call plays and can’t handle fourth-quarter decision-making, what is he bringing to the table?

What needs to happen next: Pierce has to prove he is up to the task of managing and winning close games. With games against the Falcons, Jaguars and Saints in December, the Raiders should be able to keep things close and make those matchups competitive. Pierce can’t be a liability in those moments.

Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Week 13 result: Lost 23-20 to the Texans

The league’s other two-win team seems more resigned to its fate than angry about what has happened. Amid chatter about his future in league circles, Pederson’s Jaguars laid an egg in Week 11, losing 52-6 to the Lions. With the bye week to come, it almost seemed inevitable that fans would wake up Monday morning to stories that the Jags had fired their coach in advance of yet another transition in 2025.

Instead, Pederson kept his job. The Jaguars returned from their bye with Trevor Lawrence back under center, only for the franchise quarterback to be forced from the game after a brutal, dirty hit by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Mac Jones led a pair of late touchdown drives to make the game look closer, but even against a Houston team that has failed to impress for most of the season, Jacksonville wasn’t able to get a stop when it needed one.

At 2-10, the Jaguars are one loss away from matching the record they had in 2021 under the disastrous reign of Urban Meyer. After going 17-6 in their first season and a half under Pederson, they’ve gone 3-15 since, the worst mark of any team. The Panthers are the only team with a worse point differential over that span. There’s an argument to be made that the Jaguars have been unlucky, given that Sunday’s loss left them with a 1-9 record in one-score games over that 18-game span, but this team has repeatedly contorted itself into finding ways to underperform or lose late in games.

Pederson has blamed his players for some of the mistakes the team has made, and while that’s not going to win him any fans in the locker room, he isn’t wrong. Both Jacksonville quarterbacks missed would-be long touchdown passes to Brian Thomas on deep posts on Sunday. The first was underthrown by Lawrence and produced a pick from Texans corner Derek Stingley. The second was overthrown by Jones. Thomas picked up 56 yards as the crosser on a mesh concept two plays later, but even the good comes with the bad, as the Jags followed that with a delay of game penalty and eventually settled for a field goal.

This offense has looked disjointed and out of sync all season. Without a consistent running game, the Jags have seemingly had little faith in their play-action attack, even though their passer rating is more than 21 points better using play-fakes this season. On Sunday, to be fair, the play-action game was hopeless, as Lawrence and Jones went a combined 2-of-8 for 16 yards, albeit with two of those misses coming on the long incompletions to Thomas. Injuries haven’t helped at receiver, but the offense was wildly inconsistent even before Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis went down.

The defense, meanwhile, is impulsive and sloppy. The Jags are weak up the middle, where their linebackers and safeties are too easily pulled out of position. They seem to be more concerned with making big hits than sound tackling. They rank last in the league in QBR allowed against play-action and 26th in QBR on throws between the numbers. They rank last in QBR allowed on throws to tight ends with a whopping 97.2 mark, a brutal figure for a team that has invested both a big-money free agent deal (Foyesade Oluokun) and a first-round pick (Devin Lloyd) at linebacker.

They gave up a 30-yard run to Joe Mixon on Sunday where no defender was able to contain him from cutting back to the opposite sideline. Dalton Schultz’s 22-yard touchdown came on a play when no defender ran with the opposing tight end, leaving him wide open for an easy score. The Texans are sloppy and frustrating, but they have stars who can overcome the rest of the team’s mistakes. The Jags don’t have that star power and suffer as a result.

What’s most distressing, perhaps, is just how uninterested and unchanging things seem to be in Jacksonville. The big news before the game was that

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