The Detroit Lions’ 52-6 defeat of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, combined with the Kansas City Chiefs’ 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills, put the Lions in an unusual position. For one of the few instances in club history, they were the consensus Super Bowl favourite at odds of roughly +325. In fact, several oddsmakers believe it’s the first time the club has been favoured to win the title in 70 years. After all, the Lions have only been to the playoffs 18 times since 1935.
That status has also positioned the Lions as the team most likely to keep those oddsmakers awake at night, following a 9-1 start this season. Following last season’s amazing run to the NFC Championship Game, money has poured into Detroit, which may cost bookmakers substantially in bettors’ payouts if the Lions win Super Bowl LIX.
“They’re by far our biggest Super Bowl liability—and pretty much our only one at this point,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini told The Athletic. “Anything inside of 10-1 [odds], we don’t usually build insane liability that we’re concerned about, but everyone has been on them. At this point, the Lions winning the Super Bowl would be disastrous for us. If I could take them out of futures, I would.”
Adding to Detroit’s rising liabilities, fans tend to favour their home team with their wagers, and Michigan is one of 38 states with legal sports betting. The Lions entered the offseason with a 12-1 chance of winning the Super Bowl, but those chances have plummeted drastically to little over 3-1 since. Betting money has followed this success.
“The betting momentum in favour of Detroit started prior to the season as they attracted a large number of Super Bowl future wagers,” said Brad Bryant, general manager of Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook, noting the Lions had been one of the Mohegan Sun’s “top-wagered teams on a weekly basis.”
At DraftKings Sportsbook, 31 percent of bets (the highest among NFL teams) and total amounts wagered (also the highest) were on Detroit to win the Super Bowl earlier this week. The Lions are third in ticket count for Super Bowl futures at The Borgata in Atlantic City, where sportsbook director Thomas Gable stated that Detroit has the highest total cash placed to win the Super Bowl “by a pretty good stretch.”
“We hate the Lions,” Cipollini remarked, adding that the quantity of Lions bets is the first item he checks each week. “I’ve never seen anything like this in my time at BetMGM. Every week, they are our worst team. I believe 95 percent of the bets last week [versus the Jaguars] were on Detroit.
With an NFC-best 9-1 record and eight consecutive victories, the Lions have risen from a top-five preseason power ranking among oddsmakers to the league’s consensus top-ranked club. Nine out of ten oddsmakers polled by The Athletic regarded the Lions as their most powerful team. (One ranked the Baltimore Ravens somewhat higher than Detroit.)
The Lions also have the greatest record against the spread in the NFL, going 8-2, and gamblers who bet on Detroit with a moneyline or normal six-point teaser have won nine out of ten times.
And the action is not limited to Michigan. Bookmakers reported greater interest in betting on the Lions at sportsbooks ranging from Mississippi to Las Vegas.
“That’s 100 percent true,” said Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “Weekly bets on Lions point spread, moneyline, teasers and game over and Lions team total over.”
Several other oddsmakers concurred, stating that they had witnessed an uptick in wagering on the Lions compared to past seasons and that the public was frequently chucking Detroit in moneyline parlays and teases. Lions at -7.5 are presently the most-bet Week 12 side in terms of total money and tickets at BetMGM and DraftKings, respectively.
“[The public] will include Detroit in parlays and tease the spread down,” The Borgata’s Gable said. “We opened [with] the Lions -8 versus the Colts [in Week 12] and immediately took respected money. Now it’s 7.5”.
It’s clear why the public is in love: The Lions have gone 41-16 ATS (72 percent) in their last 57 games since the middle of the 2021 season. This includes a 22-8 ATS record in the first half since the start of the previous season. Double-digit favourites in the NFL are 5-0 ATS this season, with the Lions accounting for two of those covers: a 52-6 laugher against Jacksonville as a 14-point favourite and a 52-14 thrashing of the Tennessee Titans as a 13-point favourite. It’s one thing to cover a 14-point spread; another to win in a rocking chair.
Looking ahead to a hypothetical title clash, when six oddsmakers were asked to make a spread on a Chiefs-Lions game on a neutral field, their responses were:
Lions have a score of -4.5, -2.5, -2, -1.5, and -1, with one pick-em.
The oddsmaker structuring the clash as a pick-em noted, “One of my concerns is the coach. When it comes to Detroit vs. the Chiefs and Andy Reid, the differences are significant. And the Lions have yet to reach the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have been there.
As the Lions continue to dominate opponents, oddsmakers are clearly betting against a Detroit Super Bowl victory. History might be on their side.
Several oddsmakers contacted by The Athletic, who have worked in sports betting since the 1970s, could not recall a period when Detroit was favoured to win the pro football championship. According to Pro Football Reference, the Lions were favoured by three points in the 1954 championship game against the Cleveland Browns, but were defeated 56-10.
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