The Seattle Seahawks, looking for a bounce-back win with the margin for error to win the NFC West suddenly razor thin, will face the resurgent Minnesota Vikings in a vital regular-season home finale with playoff implications for both teams.
A sluggish start on both sides of the ball doomed Seattle in a 31-13 loss to Green Bay, knocking coach Mike Macdonald’s team out of first position in the division with only three games remaining. Minnesota, on the other hand, cruised against Chicago on Monday night to move to 12-2, keeping them in contention for not just the division crown but also the top seed and a first-round bye.
Which matchups will determine who wins the critical Week 16 game? Here are six positional matchups to watch as the Seahawks and Vikings compete at Lumen Field:
–Seahawks receivers DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett face Vikings cornerbacks Shaq Griffin, Stephon Gilmore, and Byron Murphy: The Vikings have allowed the second fewest points in the NFL this season, but they have been weak in coverage, allowing 46 pass plays of 20 yards or more, the ninth most in the league. Murphy has intercepted six passes through Week 16, but he has also given up 623 yards in coverage, ranking seventh among cornerbacks this season. Griffin, a former Seahawks draft pick, has been susceptible to being beat downfield, averaging 14.7 yards per reception on 23 catches. Before missing a couple of games due to injury, Gilmore had a 66 percent completion rate and three touchdowns, but was exposed more in the quick passing game and allowed yardage after the catch.
Most notably, according to Pro Football Focus, Minnesota has allowed more yards to outside receivers than any other team in the NFL. That should allow Metcalf, who hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 4 and only had three targets last weekend against Green Bay, to regain his form, as he is seventh among receivers in yardage on the outside. He also has a track record of success against Griffin and Gilmore, having caught touchdowns in past meetings. Murphy has intercepted three passes from the nickel position, but he has also allowed 33 catches on 43 targets for 341 yards, setting up an intriguing one-on-one matchup with Smith-Njigba, who leads the league in receptions and receiving yards from the slot.
–The Seahawks’ defensive tackles Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and Byron Murphy will face Vikings guards Dalton Risner and Blake Brandel, as well as centre Garrett Bradbury. The Vikings have done a good job protecting quarterback Sam Darnold this season, but when opponents have been able to get after him in the pocket, much of the pressure has come from the interior. Brendel has allowed 28 pressures and six sacks in his debut season as a full-time starter, which is tied for second among guards in the NFL this year, and his pass block efficiency rate of 96.6 percent ranks 47th out of 61 qualifying guards. Ed Ingram had performed even worse in that category, recording five sacks, prompting him to be benched in favour of Risner late last month. Bradbury has also been probably the worst pass-protecting centre in football, allowing 31 pressures and three sacks, a league high.
On the other side of the trenches, few teams have had a more balanced interior defensive line approach than the Seahawks, beginning with the ever-disruptive Williams, who is 11th in the NFL in defensive tackle pressures and fifth in sacks. Reed is not far behind him, with 37 pressures, enough for 16th among interior defenders, while Murphy has added 17 in a rookie season that has been more effective than his numbers suggest. With all three players also playing important roles in the team’s recent turnaround against the run, this might be a significant strength for the home team, however Risner’s arrival to the lineup has been an upgrade for the Vikings over the last five games.
–Seahawks rushing backs Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet take on Vikings linebackers Blake Cashman and Kamu Grugier-Hill: Cashman has had a great debut season in the heart of Minnesota’s defence, recording 15 run stops and only three missed tackles. But they’ve missed Ivan Pace Jr. since he went on injured reserve after Week 9, as he had 18 run stops in the first nine games and helped limit opponents to just over 70 rushing yards per game during that time. Grugier-Hill has been less consistent since replacing Pace in the starting lineup, with a 20 percent failed tackle rate on 55 run defence snaps, but he has intercepted two passes in coverage to compensate.
Seattle hasn’t had a strong rushing offence for most of the season, but even with Walker out for the past two games due to a calf injury, Charbonnet has benefited from improved blocking in front of him, racking up 188 running yards and three touchdowns against Arizona and Green Bay. Interestingly, the team has rated sixth in EPA per run play since Week 13, while Minnesota has dropped from first in run defence EPA to 19th over the last three games. With Walker back in the lineup and the Vikings seeming more vulnerable against the rush, Ryan Grubb should feed his backs frequently. They should also be an important component of the passing game plan as quick outlets for Geno Smith versus the blitz, with Cashman and Grugier-Hill averaging more than 11 yards per reception this season.
–Seahawks cornerbacks Riq Woollen, Devon Witherspoon, and Josh Jobe will face Vikings receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor: Jefferson recently became the first player in NFL history to reach 7,000 receiving yards in his first five seasons, and he’s now surpassed 1,200 yards with eight touchdowns as Sam Darnold’s primary weapon. But this isn’t a one-man wrecking crew anymore, as Addison has already accumulated 771 yards and seven receiving touchdowns, while Nailor has 275 yards and five scores in his third season, giving the Vikings a fun trifecta of aerial playmakers capable of causing explosive downfield receptions.
Minnesota is especially difficult to defend because coach Kevin O’Connell rotates all three of his top receivers across the formation, including frequently dropping Jefferson into the slot. Jefferson has 25 receptions and four touchdowns from the slot this season, while Addison and Nailor have 17 and 14 catches, respectively, from the inside. This will present Seattle with a potential coverage quandary in deciding whether to move Witherspoon or Woollen with Jefferson or to play straight up with Woollen on the left side and Jobe on the right side regardless of where the superstar lines up, and what they decide may have an impact on how Darnold attacks the defence, targeting his other wideouts on the outside or in the slot.
–Seahawks tackles Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross take on Vikings outside linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel: Minnesota parted ways with long-time outstanding rusher Danielle Hunter this offseason, but the acquisitions of Greenard and Van Ginkel have made his departure much easier to accept. Greenard, who transferred from Houston after a career year, has maintained his ascension in Brian Flores’ defence, pestering quarterbacks with 66 pressures, 10.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, and 15 tackles for loss. Van Ginkel has been a bigger surprise, already recording a career-high nine sacks, 38 pressures, and two interceptions as a versatile edge rusher who can even drop back into coverage in a pinch.
Both arrivals provide plenty of quick twitch off the edge, with Greenard being more of a speed to power rusher and Van Ginkel having the explosiveness and technical savvy to win regularly as a finesse rusher, perhaps causing difficulties for Seattle’s beleaguered offensive line. Cross has allowed the third-most QB pressures among NFL tackles, along with six sacks, but he has roughly 200 more pass blocking reps than the two players ahead of him and has performed admirably in his third season. Lucas, on the other hand, has been rusty after a lengthy layoff recovering from knee surgery, allowing four sacks and 14 pressures in five games while mostly facing speedier rushers who beat him upfield. Given the talented defenders he will face in this game, that might be a major worry.
–Seahawks linebackers Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight take on Vikings running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers: For the majority of the season, the Vikings’ rushing offence has been adequate enough to keep defences honest and open up play action opportunities for Darnold and his dynamic wideouts. Jones is still a good all-around back, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced (41), 12th in 10-plus yard runs (23), and 10th in receptions at his position, but he has seven fumbles this season. Akers, a former NFC West foe who began his career with the Rams, has been an efficient change of pace back despite limited opportunities, totalling 358 running yards and four touchdowns, two of which came as receivers.
Jones has been a game changer since joining the Seahawks in late October, but his most uneven performance with his new team came last week, when he missed key open-field tackles in the first half as the Packers jumped out to a 14-point lead. He did force a fumble against Josh Jacobs in the second half, which resulted in a Charbonnet touchdown a few plays later. Given Aaron Jones’ propensity of coughing up the football (21 career fumbles), his ability to punch out the ball could be an x-factor to watch out for. Meanwhile, Knight will face one of his toughest coverage tests yet, as Jones and Akers are both good receivers who can run a variety of routes out of the backfield.
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