Texas will tumble in the College Football Playoff rankings, but it is unclear whether it will fall all the way to Tennessee in the bracket.In the SEC championship game on Saturday, No. 2 Texas was defeated 22-19 in overtime by No. 5 Georgia.
Georgia (11-2) receives an automatic first-round bye and a top-4 seed as the SEC champion. The Longhorns (11-2) fall into the at-large pool, where they have a wide range of landing options.
The College Football Playoff choices will be announced on Sunday (noon ET on ESPN).
Texas does not have any CFP Top 25 victories. Its best victories were over Texas A&M, Michigan, and Florida, who each garnered Top 25 votes but did not make the AP Top 25 or US LBM Coaches.
Texas will most likely host a first-round game with a seed ranging from the fifth to the eighth. However, there is a small chance it will fall below Tennessee, which is presently predicted as the No. 9 seed.
However, the outcome of the Big Ten championship game will be a factor. No. 1 Oregon faces No. 3 Penn State in the late game on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, CBS).
Here are the CFP seeding options following the SEC title game, and how they might affect Tennessee.
If Texas earns the fifth seed…
Texas passes the eye test, despite barely losing the SEC championship game. As a result, the top-ranked at-large club might be seeded fifth. Notre Dame and a Big Ten team would be seeded sixth and seventh, respectively.
That would leave Tennessee as the No. 9 seed, facing either Ohio State or Penn State, if Penn State lost to Oregon. However, if Penn State loses to Oregon by a large margin and drops to the ninth seed, Tennessee will host Penn State at Neyland Stadium.
If Texas receives the sixth seed…
The CFP selection committee may rank the Longhorns as the sixth seed, behind Notre Dame or the Big Ten runner-up, if Texas continues to impress them. The No. 7 seed would then be either Notre Dame or a Big Ten school.
If Penn State lost against Oregon, Tennessee would be the ninth seed and would have to face either Ohio State or Penn State. Tennessee would host Penn State at Neyland Stadium, though, if Penn State fell to the No. 9 seed after losing to Oregon by a significant margin.
In this case, the Vols’ opponent, seed, and game location would be decided by the Big Ten championship game.
If Georgia and Texas trade places for the seventh seed…
Prior to the SEC championship game, Georgia was predicted to be the seventh seed. Texas could be the seventh seed if the committee simply switched the SEC teams.
Tennessee might end up as the ninth seed as a result. If Penn State lost to Oregon, it would either be played at Penn State or Ohio State. Penn State might slip behind Tennessee if it loses to Oregon by a significant amount, and the Vols and Nittany Lions would meet at Neyland Stadium.
Once more, the Big Ten championship game would be a significant impact.
If Texas drops to the eighth seed…
No wins in the Top 25? Texas may drop significantly as a result of that black mark on its record, possibly to the No. 8 seed.
Tennessee would then be the ninth seed. In a contest for the title of “the real UT,” it would take on the Longhorns in Austin, Texas.
If Texas loses to Tennessee for the ninth seed …
Texas hasn’t placed in the top 25. Alabama, ranked eleventh, lost to Tennessee. Georgia defeated Tennessee. However, Georgia also defeated Texas twice. Additionally, Georgia used a backup quarterback in the second part of the game, which resulted in the second defeat.
The Longhorns might drop all the way to the No. 9 seed if those considerations were sufficient for the committee to reevaluate its assessment of Texas. Texas hung tough with Georgia, so that’s improbable.
However, Tennessee would host Texas at Neyland Stadium in that scenario.
Naturally, a lot of this is dependent on how the Big Ten title game turns out. Thus, pay attention.
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