UPDATED, SATURDAY AM: Universal’s Wicked is coming in with a $46.7M Friday plus previews, which has the studio predicting a $117M opening at this point. Paramount‘s Gladiator II stands at $60M after a $22M Friday/previews.
Wicked gets an A CinemaScore, a grade that’s up there with other Broadway feature adaptations such as Les Miserables (A), Chicago (A-), Annie (A-), Mamma Mia (A-) and higher than Into the Woods (B). Gladiator II gets a B versus the original 2000 movie’s A. Still, moviegoers like the latter with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes audience meter and 4 stars on PostTrak with a strong 64% definite recommend.
There was a lot of pent-up demand for a repeat of Barbenheimer this weekend at the box office. That’s a high bar to reach, but a form of it exists with these two movies ringing in $177M alone in a frame that’s shaping up to be an estimated $209M for all titles. Also consider the fact that we’re not in the deep of summer. The biggest mistake by the industry would be not to have created a Glicked weekend.
By the way, you know it’s an excellent weekend when the opening titles are stealing screens from the competition. “Everyone below Wicked and Gladiator II is getting crushed,” says one theatrical booker, “Theater managers are just pulling titles off showtimes and giving them to those two films.”
Exhibitors are upping the out-of-home experience. B&B Theatres has Roman guards tearing tickets and serving Strength & Honor cocktails in celebration of Gladiator II. Alamo Drafthouse Cinema is selling “Defying Gravi-Tea”, Witch’s Brew and throwing Emerald City soirees. Marcus Theatres has character appearances by Elphaba and Glinda, and pink and green ICEE’s.
Let’s keep in mind a few things in case the marketplace hits a bump, but really, there is nothing to complain about:
- It’s a holiday week, so there’s plenty of time to head to the cinemas this week. While there was only 1% K-12 schools off yesterday, that grows to 47% K-12 and 18% colleges off on Monday per Comscore, eventually rising to near 100% levels on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the latter being one of the highest grossing days of the year. As such, both of these titles will continue to leg out into December.
- As far as Wicked goes — it’s a musical. And they have their ceilings at the B.O. The only ones which excelled to openings north of $100M were Disney ones based on previous animated pics, i.e. The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast (The original NRG projection on this was $80M, and Gladiator II was at $65M. So, we’re still in very good shape on Wicked.)
- Despite the crazy pre-sales on Wicked, it’s a female heavy film, which means they are a moving target when studios try to predict their turnout. Remember, many had Taylor Swift: Eras Tour north of $100M before it settled at $93.2M. Hopefully, today’s drop isn’t so steep given how front-loaded female movies tend to be. Currently, Wicked is predicted to decline -18% against Friday/previews for a $38.1M take.
- Both Gladiator II and Wicked are very long, respectively at 2 hours 28 minutes and 2 hours 40 minutes. Barbie clocked in just under 2 hours versus Oppenheimer‘s 3 hours. According to The Boxoffice Company, Wicked scheduled around 248K showtimes while Gladiator II counts 175K.
Demos on Wicked are 72% women with 6% between 13-17, 25% between 18-24, 32% between 25-54 (the biggest demo), and 38% of the audience over 35. Diversity demos are 54% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black and 8% Asian. PLF screens and some Imax are delivering just over a third of the weekend to Wicked‘s business. The Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo movie is playing best in the East but pretty even across the country with AMC Universal Citywalk the highest grossing multiplex in America with $197K so far. Universal is forecasting a $165M global opening weekend for Wicked at this point in time.
Gladiator II at a cost of $250M before P&A already has $130M coming from overseas to date. It will easily touch or near $200M WW this weekend. The Denzel Washington and Paul Mescal movie has all the Imax screens (and some PLFS) and driving 32% of its 3-day. Gladiator II is playing best in the South Central and West with AMC Lincoln Square the top venue with $74K so far.
Fourth place goes to Angel Studios’ Bonhoeffer. Pastor. Spy. Assassin at 1,900 sites with $2.3M Friday and $4.65M for the weekend off an A Cinemascore. The movie from the faith-based studio is playing the middle of the country with Penn Cinema 14 in Lititz, PA the highest grossing cinema for the pic with $12K so far. Female leaning at 54% with 79% of those who bought tickets over 35 and the faith-based core showing up at 50% over 55. Mostly Caucasian at 71% with 13% Latino and Hispanic and 8% Asian.
- Wicked (Uni) 3,888 theaters, Fri $46.7M, 3-day $117M/Wk 1
- Gladiator 2 (Par) 3,573 theaters, Fri $22M, 3-day $60M/Wk 1
- Red One (AMZ MGM) 4,032 theaters, Fri $3.3M (-69%) 3-day $13M (-59%), Total $52.6M/Wk 2
- Bonhoeffer…(Angel) 1,900 theaters, Fri $2.3M 3-day $4.65M /Wk 1
- Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 2,558 (-863) theaters, Fri $975k (-38%) 3-day $4M (-45%), Total $133.8M/Wk 5
- Best Christmas Pageant Ever (LG) 2,279 (-741) theaters, Fri $920K (-33%) 3-day $3.5M (-33%), Total $25.5M/Wk 3
- Heretic (A24) 1622 (-1608) theaters, Fri $676K (-49%) 3-day $2.3M (-54%), Total $24.8M/Wk 3
- The Wild Robot (Uni) 2,110 (-784) Fri $470K (-50%) 3-day $2M (-53%), Total $140.7M/Wk 9
- Conclave (Foc) 1,013 (-1364) theaters, Fri $310K 3-day $1.15M (-59%), Total $29M/Wk 5
- Smile 2 (Par) 952 (-1510) theaters Fri $325K 3-day $1.13M (-61%), Total $67.7M/Wk 6
- Hello, Love Again (Abra) 244 (-4) theaters Fri $299K (-68%), 3-day $1M (-60%), Total $4.8M/Wk 1
Notables:
Anora (NEON) 500 (-1,000) theaters, Fri $210K (-60%), 3-day $700K (-60%), Total $12.3M/Wk 6
UPDATED, Friday PM: The Glicked weekend is currently looking like a $120 million opening for Universal’s Wicked after a $48.5M Friday plus previews, while Gladiator II is shaping up to $23.5M in Friday/previews turning into a $61M opening weekend at 3,573 locations.
Generally, midday projections are conservative, so we’ll see whether there’s a rush of ladies tonight, and families into tomorrow, for Wicked. Per Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, 71% women showed up last night. Gladiator II is more the date-night movie with 61% men and 39% women showing up to Thursday screenings.
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